Fortress and Blackstone, Time to buy?

I was in a classroom environment last week, briefly discussing recent IPOs, when one of my class mates noted how poorly Blackstone stock had performed since its debut on the New York Stock Exchange. At first it didn't bother me..., but I then realized he had no idea why the IPO had a bad first week, and that did annoy me. The reason behind the poor start are the fears of tax law changes which could drop hedge funds and private equity firms into the 34% tax bracket from the actual 15% I believe.
Today the stock dropped an other 2.51% to $29.18 on corporate governance issue concerns, apparently the way the IPO was structured it did not follow NYSE rules imposed on other corporations trading on the exchange (operating company vs. investing company).
But as investors will learn tomorrow the first legal hurdle seem to have been passed, as Treasury Assistant Secretary for Tax Policies Eric Salomon had nothing positive to say about the new proposed tax laws.
I remember thinking, last week, "with all the money these guys have, I'm sure they'll be able to lobby successfully(Blackstone co-founder and CEO Steve Schwarzman made $7.7 Billion on the day they went public), plus if this guy says "sell" without knowing why, the odd lot theory would indicate "buy"".
Now it seems my initial prediction is holding true, I am sure they are smart enough to navigate around anything legislators might throw their way, and with BX now down 10% from its opening day, and FIG down 22%, I bet they are due for a pop.
Keep an eye out!

ConocoPhilips Shares up 3% After Company Annouces $15B Share Buy Back

Conoco's buy back represents about 180 million shares, or 11% of all outstanding stock, it will be buying back shares every quarter until the end of 2008. Very bullish news for Conoco stock holders, on top of high oil prices, making this stock look attractive in times where the sub prime mess is pushing most averages lower.

Correction Day

So how is everybody's portfolio doing today? Are you feeling pain and nausea from the red paint all over your account statement? If yes, then don’t you worry, you’re not the only one out there. As of 9:09 a.m. my portfolio was down 2.2%. That’s almost my January’s entire gains wipe out in one day!

I’m not worried though, February had been stellar until now (up 5.93%), and I always brace myself for some big losses after a long winning streak.

For those who read my posting on February 1^st you can now see that I was right to be worried about Emerging Market’s valuation level. EEM is my biggest loser today, currently shaving 4.7% of its value after being down over 6% at the opening bell. By now everyone should know that China’s market had its biggest one-day lost in a decade (8.8%), and this is only the beginning. I think the decline can easily continue to -25% before it bottoms out, based on previous experience (in May of 06 EEM went down 27% from about $110 to just above $80).

To look on the bright side, this is only a correction (based on CNBC analyst’s opinion) and soon opportunities will present themselves in the form of under valued equity.

The one sector I remain bullish about is commodities, and most importantly gold. I think gold is on a strong up trend and we should see prices breaking its May of 06 highs of $732 pretty soon, probably within 6 months.

Good luck out there, and don’t let a set back hampered your enthusiasm for the equity markets.