Wednesday, July 11, 2007

Fortress and Blackstone, Time to buy?

I was in a classroom environment last week, briefly discussing recent IPOs, when one of my class mates noted how poorly Blackstone stock had performed since its debut on the New York Stock Exchange. At first it didn't bother me..., but I then realized he had no idea why the IPO had a bad first week, and that did annoy me. The reason behind the poor start are the fears of tax law changes which could drop hedge funds and private equity firms into the 34% tax bracket from the actual 15% I believe.
Today the stock dropped an other 2.51% to $29.18 on corporate governance issue concerns, apparently the way the IPO was structured it did not follow NYSE rules imposed on other corporations trading on the exchange (operating company vs. investing company).
But as investors will learn tomorrow the first legal hurdle seem to have been passed, as Treasury Assistant Secretary for Tax Policies Eric Salomon had nothing positive to say about the new proposed tax laws.
I remember thinking, last week, "with all the money these guys have, I'm sure they'll be able to lobby successfully(Blackstone co-founder and CEO Steve Schwarzman made $7.7 Billion on the day they went public), plus if this guy says "sell" without knowing why, the odd lot theory would indicate "buy"".
Now it seems my initial prediction is holding true, I am sure they are smart enough to navigate around anything legislators might throw their way, and with BX now down 10% from its opening day, and FIG down 22%, I bet they are due for a pop.
Keep an eye out!

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